Digital asses in the computing industry

Ever noticed how academic asses are analog and industrial asses are digital? It's legitimate to not know whether P equals NP, or to not know what x is if x*2=y but we don't know y, for that matter. But it isn't legitimate to not know how many cycles, megabytes or – the king of them all – man-months it will take, so numbers have to be pulled out of one's ass.

The interesting thing is that the ass adapts, that the numbers pulled out of this unconventional digital device aren't pure noise. Is it because digital asses know to synchronize? Your off-by-2-months estimation is fine as long as other estimations are off by 5. But it's not just that, there must be something else, a mystery waiting to be discovered. We need a theory of computational proctology.

Ever noticed how painful the act of anal estimation is for the untrained, um, mind, but then eventually people actually get addicted to it? Much like managers who learn that problems can be made to go away by means such as saying a firm "No", without the much harder process of understanding the problem, not to mention solving it? Anal prophecy is to the technical "expert" the same raw enjoyment that the triumph of power over knowledge is to the manager. "Your powers are nothing compared to mine!"


There once was a company called ArsDigita (I warmly recommend the founder's blog and have his Tenth Rule tattooed all over my psyche), a name I tend to misread as "ArseDigital" – a tribute to an important method of numerical analysis and estimation in the computing industry.

97 comments ↓

#1 Bragaadeesh on 02.06.10 at 11:13 am

Nice post buddy. Yes it becomes a lot of times irritating with managers who are stupid enough to assess the resource strength and go by their intuition rather than facts and figures. One thing I do to satisfy myself is not to compare him and me at time 't'. Instead I do that comparison at age 'a'. You would feel real better if u do it.

#2 Yossi Kreinin on 02.06.10 at 11:24 pm

Well, it's not like anyone has much choice: either you have enough information or you don't (except the times when one ignores information because of the addiction to the way of doing without it).

Nice TI stuff.

#3 Yonatan on 02.07.10 at 3:24 am

The nice thing about work plan – which I've experienced first hand – is the transition, or maybe ascension, from the ridiculous to the sublime.
You write a work plan because you need to write a work plan, and everyone involved knows it's completely ludicrous, with all of the time estimates completely made up.
But somehow, you start working according to this plan, and your deadlines and demands from those involved are based on the completely arbitrary time estimates that you all made up.

I suspect there's a moral here for life in general.

#4 Yossi Kreinin on 02.07.10 at 8:15 am

Life as ascension from the ridiculous to the sublime? An optimistic outlook.

#5 Andrei on 02.08.10 at 3:55 am

Yossi wrote: "Your off-by-2-months estimation is fine as long as other estimations are off by 5."

But this is as it should be, isn't it? Guesstimating too far in either direction will result in either late fees or errors in planning and resource allocation. If the error is smaller you will trust its source more, right?

#6 Yossi Kreinin on 02.08.10 at 8:29 am

Sure, though I meant the relative error, not the absolute. An asstimation which is off by 2 years is also fine as long as other asstimations are off by 5; though "errors in planning and resource allocation" as you've politely put it far exceed those resulting from an error of 2 months, it's still someone else's ass that absorbs most of the consequences, hence the importance of syncing.

#7 gus3 on 02.10.10 at 9:59 am

Eleven years ago, I had a manager-boss whose #1 qualification was that his father had been a middle manager for a big oil company.

The first clue that he shouldn't have been in that position, was that he promoted to assistant managers, the two who had been in the department the least time, and whose cluefulness was directly proportionate to that time.

Not long after he fired me (my behavior threatened to expose his ignorance), he told his boss that the department could develop a battery of tests for a new system module in two weeks.

When word of this got to the rank-and-file, the rank-and-file requested, and got, a meeting with the manager's boss, the VP of the division. They informed the VP that, in order to get such tests developed in two weeks, they would have to work seventeen hours a day, seven days a week.

The manager was gone the next day.

Unfortunately, that was just one symptom of how bad things there had become. A year later, the company was sold to a Dutch corporation, who eventually fired everyone and moved the chattel to Amsterdam.

#8 Yossi Kreinin on 02.10.10 at 10:02 am

The success of the maneuver with the VP indicates that things weren't completely rotten; a pity the place went under nonetheless.

#9 gus3 on 02.10.10 at 10:13 pm

The fact that the maneuver was necessary at all, outweighs any success it accomplished.

#10 Yossi Kreinin on 02.11.10 at 12:01 am

Well, I wasn't there, and the fact is that they did go under quite soon, so I can't really say anything beyond what I think is the general rule of there being no organization that doesn't err (as in promoting someone to a position where he is incompetent), the only difference is that some organizations tend to correct their errors (as in fire him or put him into a situation where he chooses to quit) and some don't. I'm somewhat pessimistic regarding the chances of the existence of flawless meritocracies, though there can be an overall meritocratic trend.

#11 Dan Wiebe on 12.29.12 at 1:51 pm

My experience after decades of Waterfall followed by five or six years of Agile is that _nobody knows_ how long a given development task is going to take, if it's going to take longer than a day or two, and frequently not even then. _Every_ estimate is a lie, period. There is _no way to tell_ how long it's going to take from the beginning, and one very important reason–although not the only reason–is that at the beginning, nobody really has any idea what "it" is. Oh, people will swear up and down that they know _exactly_ what "it" is, and they'll wave three-hundred-page documents around, but those are lies too.

#12 Yossi Kreinin on 12.29.12 at 2:50 pm

What's lovely is how pointing this out will only get you in trouble. The rewarded reaction is to pull an asstimate with a straight face, and without a trace of shame; and when it turns out wrong, explain with the same straight face and an equal lack of shame how that couldn't be predicted.

#13 Dan Wiebe on 12.29.12 at 7:23 pm

Yup. The thing to do is to set a final condition and then repeatedly add the next most important single-iteration feature (as defined by the product owner) until the final condition is reached. The final condition might be a cutoff date, or it might be a budget limit, or it might be the point where the value of the next most important feature is less than the value of the time and money that will be required to develop it. The final condition might change over the course of the project. It almost certainly will _not_ be "When the project is complete," because by the time the rubber meets the road everyone will have different definitions of "project" and "complete."

Anybody who thumps a two-inch-thick requirements binder and says, "We're going to have this project done in twenty-four months" is lying and headed for disaster.

#14 Sunday Meddock on 05.15.19 at 8:36 pm

I'm pleased with the way that yosefk.com deals with this kind of topic. Usually on point, often controversial, always thoughtful as well as stimulating.

#15 resharper crack on 05.15.19 at 8:54 pm

Cheers, great stuff, I enjoying.

#16 how to get help in windows 10 on 05.28.19 at 1:26 pm

If you would like to obtain much from this post then you have to apply such techniques to your
won web site.

#17 gamefly free trial on 05.29.19 at 4:07 pm

Yesterday, while I was at work, my cousin stole my apple ipad and tested to see if
it can survive a 40 foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation.
My iPad is now destroyed and she has 83 views.
I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

#18 how to get help in windows 10 on 05.30.19 at 8:53 am

Definitely imagine that which you stated. Your favourite justification seemed to be on the internet
the simplest factor to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get
irked while folks consider concerns that they just do not know about.
You controlled to hit the nail upon the top as smartly as outlined out the
entire thing with no need side effect , other people could take a signal.
Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

#19 gamefly free trial on 05.31.19 at 9:07 am

You need to be a part of a contest for one of the highest quality blogs on the web.
I most certainly will recommend this website!

#20 gamefly free trial on 05.31.19 at 4:01 pm

Hey there this is kinda of off topic but I
was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if
you have to manually code with HTML. I'm starting a blog soon but have no
coding expertise so I wanted to get guidance from someone
with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

#21 gamefly free trial on 06.01.19 at 11:34 am

Appreciation to my father who informed me concerning this blog, this
website is actually awesome.

#22 gamefly free trial on 06.02.19 at 8:04 am

Simply wish to say your article is as astonishing.
The clearness in your post is just excellent and i can assume you're an expert on this subject.
Well with your permission allow me to grab your feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post.

Thanks a million and please continue the rewarding work.

#23 MatSady on 06.03.19 at 7:53 am

Discount Real Acticin In Germany Drugs Pharmacy With Free Shipping Levitra Generico Online [url=http://cialisong.com]generic cialis overnight delivery[/url] How To Buy Hydrochlorothiazide Generic Propecia 1 Ml

#24 gamefly free trial on 06.04.19 at 6:09 am

Hiya very cool blog!! Man .. Beautiful .. Amazing ..
I will bookmark your site and take the feeds also? I am happy to find a lot of helpful
info here within the publish, we'd like work out more techniques on this regard, thanks for sharing.
. . . . .

#25 gamefly free trial on 06.04.19 at 7:59 am

Heya are using WordPress for your site platform? I'm new to the blog world but I'm trying to get started and create my own. Do you require any coding expertise
to make your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

#26 gamefly free trial on 06.05.19 at 1:16 am

Excellent beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your website,
how could i subscribe for a blog website? The account helped me a acceptable
deal. I had been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided
bright clear concept

#27 gamefly free trial on 06.06.19 at 7:21 am

Outstanding post however , I was wanting to know if you could write a litte more on this
topic? I'd be very thankful if you could elaborate a little
bit more. Thanks!

#28 gamefly free trial on 06.06.19 at 2:52 pm

Hey! I know this is sort of off-topic however I needed to ask.

Does running a well-established website such
as yours require a massive amount work? I'm completely new to running a blog
but I do write in my diary every day. I'd like to start a blog so I can share my personal experience and feelings
online. Please let me know if you have any recommendations or tips for
brand new aspiring bloggers. Appreciate it!

#29 gamefly free trial on 06.07.19 at 10:22 pm

You actually make it seem really easy with your presentation but I to find this topic to be actually something which I think I might never understand.
It seems too complicated and extremely vast for me.
I'm looking ahead for your next put up, I will attempt to get the grasp of it!

#30 ps4 games 2018 on 06.08.19 at 6:40 am

Fantastic goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you are just extremely excellent.
I actually like what you have acquired here, really like
what you're stating and the way in which you say it.

You make it entertaining and you still take care of to keep it smart.
I cant wait to read far more from you. This is actually a tremendous website.

#31 tinyurl.com on 06.09.19 at 11:13 am

Greate pieces. Keep writing such kind of info on your blog.

Im really impressed by it.
Hi there, You have performed a great job. I will definitely digg it and in my
opinion recommend to my friends. I am confident they'll be benefited
from this web site.

#32 MatSady on 06.10.19 at 11:33 am

Cheapest Cialis 5 Mg Leclerc Levitra [url=http://cpsmeds.com]tadalafil cialis from india[/url] Suche Viagra Pille

#33 playstation 4 best games ever made 2019 on 06.12.19 at 8:54 pm

Hi! I've been reading your web site for some time now
and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout
out from Lubbock Texas! Just wanted to say keep up the fantastic work!

#34 quest bars cheap on 06.14.19 at 2:52 pm

Hi there, You have done an incredible job.
I'll definitely digg it and personally suggest to my friends.
I'm confident they will be benefited from this web site.

#35 MatSady on 06.17.19 at 8:38 am

Levitra O Viagra Buy Viagra In Brisbane 58 [url=http://dan5325.com]viagra[/url] Fedex Worldwide Dutasteride 0.5mg Medication Real Low Price Virginia Will Cephalexin Heal Tooth Absess How To Make Amoxicillin

#36 krunker aimbot on 06.17.19 at 1:55 pm

Deference to op , some superb selective information .

#37 tinyurl.com on 06.17.19 at 3:32 pm

Howdy! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog.

Is it very hard to set up your own blog?
I'm not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick.
I'm thinking about setting up my own but I'm not sure where to start.
Do you have any tips or suggestions? Cheers

#38 proxo key on 06.19.19 at 2:30 pm

I like this website its a master peace ! Glad I found this on google .

#39 vn hax pubg on 06.20.19 at 11:02 pm

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#40 nonsense diamond 1.9 on 06.21.19 at 12:07 pm

I like this site because so much useful stuff on here : D.

#41 quest bars cheap on 06.23.19 at 10:47 am

Hi there, I found your site by the use of Google at the
same time as searching for a related subject,
your site got here up, it appears to be like good. I've bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.

Hi there, just became aware of your weblog thru Google, and
found that it is really informative. I'm going to watch out
for brussels. I'll be grateful for those who proceed this in future.
Many other folks can be benefited out of your writing.
Cheers!

#42 star valor cheats on 06.23.19 at 9:24 pm

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#43 gx tool apk download on 06.24.19 at 7:18 pm

Very interesting points you have remarked, appreciate it for putting up.

#44 geometry dash 2.11 download on 06.26.19 at 12:03 am

Appreciate it for this howling post, I am glad I observed this internet site on yahoo.

#45 krunker aimbot on 06.26.19 at 10:28 am

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#46 MatSady on 06.26.19 at 11:48 am

Kamagra Pharmacie Forum Anexil [url=http://elc4sa.com]viagra[/url] Vardenafil Warnings Lopressor Come Assumere Levitra

#47 ispoofer activation key on 06.27.19 at 9:28 am

Ha, here from yahoo, this is what i was looking for.

#48 synapse x serial key free on 06.28.19 at 12:33 am

I conceive this web site holds some real superb information for everyone : D.

#49 strucid aimbot on 06.28.19 at 11:29 am

very cool post, i actually love this web site, carry on it

#50 advanced systemcare 11.5 serial key on 06.28.19 at 4:02 pm

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#51 how to get help in windows 10 on 06.29.19 at 4:35 am

fantastic issues altogether, you just gained a emblem new
reader. What could you recommend about your put up that
you made a few days in the past? Any sure?

#52 zee 5 hack on 06.29.19 at 10:18 am

I like this website its a master peace ! Glad I found this on google .

#53 cryptotab balance hack script v1.4 cracked by cryptechy03 on 06.29.19 at 4:40 pm

I have interest in this, thanks.

#54 cialis_canada on 06.30.19 at 3:37 pm

Hello!

#55 tinyurl.com on 07.01.19 at 7:35 pm

Oh my goodness! Incredible article dude! Thank you,
However I am having difficulties with your RSS.
I don't understand why I can't subscribe to it.
Is there anybody having identical RSS issues? Anyone who
knows the solution will you kindly respond? Thanx!!

#56 SvetaLax on 07.01.19 at 10:24 pm

achat is en tunisie

9509 can u be is in canada

#57 cheat fortnite download no virus on 07.01.19 at 10:37 pm

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#58 free cheats for rust on 07.02.19 at 10:42 am

Morning, i really think i will be back to your website

#59 skin swapper on 07.02.19 at 3:41 pm

Just wanna input on few general things, The website layout is perfect, the articles is very superb : D.

#60 vn hax on 07.03.19 at 10:02 am

I am glad to be one of the visitors on this great website (:, appreciate it for posting .

#61 cyberhackid on 07.03.19 at 9:59 pm

I love reading through and I believe this website got some genuinely utilitarian stuff on it! .

#62 prison life hack download on 07.04.19 at 10:00 am

Hi, i really think i will be back to your website

#63 what is the point of seo on 07.04.19 at 2:47 pm

Parasite backlink SEO works well :)

#64 MatSady on 07.04.19 at 2:49 pm

Tadalafil 20mg Buy Cialis Ojos Rojos [url=http://banzell.net]viagra[/url] Amoxicillin 500mg For How Many Days Keflex Side Effects In Dogs

#65 GalyaLax on 07.04.19 at 7:23 pm

order is in south africa

10c8 acheter is forum canada

#66 phantom forces aimbot on 07.04.19 at 9:53 pm

Just wanna input on few general things, The website layout is perfect, the articles is very superb : D.

#67 open dego file on 07.05.19 at 10:19 am

Ha, here from google, this is what i was browsing for.

#68 tom clancy's the division hacks on 07.05.19 at 10:31 pm

I conceive this web site holds some real superb information for everyone : D.

#69 synapse x roblox on 07.06.19 at 8:40 am

I simply must tell you that you have an excellent and unique web that I really enjoyed reading.

#70 ea sports ufc 3 pc download + full version crack free on 07.06.19 at 12:46 pm

I conceive you have mentioned some very interesting details , appreciate it for the post.

#71 rekordbox torrent on 07.07.19 at 4:18 am

I truly enjoy looking through on this web site , it holds superb content .

#72 call of duty black ops 4 license key free download on 07.07.19 at 12:34 pm

I simply must tell you that you have an excellent and unique website that I really enjoyed reading.

#73 generic on 07.07.19 at 1:48 pm

Hello!

#74 spyhunter 5.4.2.101 portable on 07.08.19 at 1:22 pm

This is great!

#75 viagra on 07.08.19 at 8:28 pm

Hello!

#76 quest bars cheap 2019 coupon on 07.09.19 at 9:15 am

Hello there! This is kind of off topic but I need some guidance from an established blog.
Is it hard to set up your own blog? I'm not very techincal but I
can figure things out pretty quick. I'm thinking about setting up
my own but I'm not sure where to begin. Do you have any tips or suggestions?

Thank you

#77 fps unlocker download on 07.09.19 at 3:19 pm

Good Morning, google lead me here, keep up great work.

#78 viagra_cheap on 07.10.19 at 12:17 am

Hello!

#79 StukovninaLax on 07.10.19 at 3:00 am

order is melbourne

3570 is moins cher sur lyon

#80 MatSady on 07.12.19 at 8:27 am

Viagra En Sevilla [url=http://cheapciali.com]generic cialis from india[/url] Propecia Sperm Volume Cialis Tadalafil 20mg

#81 how to get help in windows 10 on 07.16.19 at 4:22 pm

Pretty! This has been an incredibly wonderful article.

Thank you for supplying these details.

#82 how to get help in windows 10 on 07.17.19 at 8:01 am

Hello There. I found your blog using msn. That is a very neatly written article.
I'll be sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your helpful info.
Thanks for the post. I will definitely return.

#83 Nicolas Dechick on 07.17.19 at 9:47 pm

Dreamwalker, this note is your next piece of data. Do transceive the agency at your convenience. No further information until next transmission. This is broadcast #8867. Do not delete.

#84 plenty of fish dating site on 07.18.19 at 12:29 pm

This website was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I've found
something that helped me. Cheers!

#85 viagra_canada on 07.19.19 at 1:48 am

Hello!

#86 MatSady on 07.20.19 at 12:54 pm

Archive Amoxil Blog Achetent Inurl Kamagra Villeurbanne 100mg My Blue Pill [url=http://brandcial.com]cialis[/url] Adult Dosage Amoxicillin Erectial

#87 how to get help in windows 10 on 07.20.19 at 5:56 pm

Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog
and wanted to say that I've truly enjoyed surfing around your blog posts.
After all I will be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again soon!

#88 how to get help in windows 10 on 07.21.19 at 2:27 pm

Greate post. Keep writing such kind of information on your site.
Im really impressed by it.
Hi there, You've performed a great job. I'll definitely
digg it and individually recommend to my friends.
I am confident they will be benefited from this web site.

#89 prodigy hacks on 07.21.19 at 6:44 pm

I love reading through and I believe this website got some genuinely utilitarian stuff on it! .

#90 how to get help in windows 10 on 07.22.19 at 5:46 am

hey there and thank you for your info – I have
certainly picked up something new from right here.

I did however expertise a few technical issues using this website, as I experienced to
reload the web site lots of times previous to I could get it to load properly.

I had been wondering if your web hosting is OK? Not that I'm complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will often affect your placement in google and
can damage your quality score if advertising and marketing with Adwords.
Anyway I am adding this RSS to my e-mail and can look out for a lot
more of your respective interesting content.
Make sure you update this again very soon.

#91 natalielise on 07.22.19 at 5:51 pm

hello there and thank you for your information – I have definitely picked up something new from right here.
I did however expertise some technical issues using
this site, as I experienced to reload the site many times previous
to I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your web host
is OK? Not that I'm complaining, but slow loading instances times will often affect your placement in google and can damage
your high quality score if advertising and marketing with Adwords.
Well I'm adding this RSS to my email and could look
out for much more of your respective exciting content.

Make sure you update this again soon. natalielise plenty of fish

#92 evogame.net/wifi on 07.23.19 at 5:51 pm

Thank You for this.

#93 plenty of fish dating site on 07.24.19 at 3:04 am

It's not my first time to pay a quick visit this site, i am browsing
this web site dailly and get fastidious facts from here everyday.

#94 fortnite skin changer darkshoz on 07.24.19 at 6:09 pm

Found this on google and I’m happy I did. Well written website.

#95 ezfrags on 07.25.19 at 8:49 pm

Cheers, i really think i will be back to your website

#96 buy_cialis on 07.26.19 at 12:54 am

Hello!

#97 ezfrags on 07.26.19 at 10:02 pm

I was looking at some of your articles on this site and I believe this internet site is really instructive! Keep on posting .