A layman's view of the economy

First of all, I proudly present a 2-minute short that I animated!

…And the same thing on YouTube, in case one loads better than the other:

One thing I learned making the film is that my Russian accent colors not only my words, but any noise coming out of my mouth. So I'm not the most versatile voice actor.

Anyway, we certainly have a debt crisis, and easy credit policies keep producing still more debt. I don't think interest rates have ever stayed so low for so long, everywhere.

Economists argue both for and against debt expansion [1], as they argue about everything.

My own take is as simple as my sparse knowledge ought to make it:

  • Unprecedented conditions produce unprecedented outcomes.
  • Booms are usually gradual, and busts are sudden.

No unusual boom has gradually arisen from unusual monetary policy, and it's been a while. But something unusual ought to happen in unusual conditions! Thus one expects a sudden, unusual bust down the road.

That's it. It's like a physicist's proof [2] that one's attractiveness peaks at some distance from the observer. At the distances of zero and infinity, visual attractiveness is zero (you can't see anything.) Therefore, attractiveness as a function of distance has a maximum somewhere in between. True, kinda, and it didn't take a lot of insight into the nature of attractiveness – much like my peak debt proof doesn't require an understanding of the economy [3].

Will today's "Brexit" trigger the global downturn predicted by Yossi Kreinin's Rule of Unprecedented Conditions? Probably not by itself. I think it's a symptom more than a cause [4], and the big bad thing comes later.

In the meanwhile, here's to hoping that my little film (started when "Grexit" was a thing, completed just in time for Brexit) was funnier than the average forward from grandma [5].

Happy Brexit! And if you follow people on Twitter, there's a strong case for following me as well.

[1] Bibliography: Nobody Understands Debt except Krugman; Does Krugman Understand Debt?

[2] I think a particular famous physicist said it, but I forget who.

[3] …and I can't say I have any understanding of the economy. That said, I've owed and paid off a lot of debt, and got to negotiate with many bankers. And I can tell you that "debt is money we owe to ourselves", Krugman's catchphrase, feels unconvincing to creditors – as many people and whole nations have found out.

[4] In fact, I just got an email from an asset manager saying that it's good for the UK in the longer run, elevating Brexit from a symptom to a cure. But he didn't say "good for everyone", and then I'm not sure his crystal ball is better than yours or mine.

[5] I linked to /r/forwardsfromgrandma since, regardless of the politics of either its members or their grandmas, I ought to give credit for the brilliant term – it's definitely funny because it's true. I've watched many relatives acquire the habit of forwarding various wingnut stuff as they age. Most frighteningly, my own urge to email such things gets harder to resist every year. I can sense my own ongoing grandmafication; between you and me, an animated short about debt might be a part of "it." Scary, scary stuff.

120 comments ↓

#1 Dmitry on 06.25.16 at 2:42 pm

Funny Economics – economists cannot agree even on basics.

I used to read Krugman's blog and I dropped few years ago. I could listen to his controversial views saying debt does not matter and other stuff which borders socialism and populism … But then he voiced that everyone who disagrees is either idiots or liars. Oh well

#2 Yossi Kreinin on 06.25.16 at 3:01 pm

I think every economist has operating conditions where he functions. An "efficient market" economist wouldn't see a bubble if it hit him on the head, but he'll see a government deficit problem. A "Keynesian" economist will compare average P/E ratios with the yield of low-risk investments and call a bubble, but he'll never see a government deficit problem.

Things would be easier if there were a EULA telling exactly when an economist is worth listening to.

#3 ivan on 06.26.16 at 9:58 am

Ты всё пела? Это дело: Так пойди и попляши!

#4 Marvy on 07.02.16 at 10:09 am

Re: EULA. Easy, just ask: when's the last time you saw/predicted a bubble/deficit/whatever?

#5 Yossi Kreinin on 07.02.16 at 11:28 am

I dunno, I think Dean Baker correctly called the last 2 bubbles (dot com & housing) and right now he says "no bubble" on the theory that lower interest rates should result in higher non-bubbly P/E rations (sounds sensible) and then also on the implicit assumption that low interest rates are sustainable and will not result in say a wave of bankruptcies – which is something you expect him to believe on ideological grounds. Do you trust him based on his good track record?

#6 Marvy on 07.07.16 at 11:37 am

Hm, not enough data.

#7 Yossi Kreinin on 07.09.16 at 10:50 am

That's almost always the case.

#8 Some Gal on 07.12.16 at 8:40 pm

Nice animation and article.

Re: predicting the bubble, and predicting in general I want to recomend the book the Black Swan by Taleb (I'm sure a lot of you already know it)

#9 Yossi Kreinin on 07.12.16 at 9:30 pm

Thanks!

As to swans – one man's black swan is another man's white swan. It's black if it's not in your model. The same bubble that sold Taleb's books was called by Baker in 2002 using very simple analysis. Timing is hard, but spotting a bubble in itself is not necessarily hard, I think.

#10 Some Gal on 07.13.16 at 9:08 pm

I agree with your point mostly. You might theoretically see if there is a over price/bubble/problem but the issue is as you say *when* will it burst *and* if it will finally do it. A new unexpected event can certainly change the status quo in no time. Also, there is irrationality …
I took good note of Baker BTW, I'll read about it. Looks very insightfull.

#11 Yossi Kreinin on 07.13.16 at 11:52 pm

I agree that you can have, for instance, a stock bubble in terms of inflated P/Es and then interest rates will drop and it's no longer inflated and now it's really hard to argue that you called a bubble correctly since it didn't pop and now there's no longer a bubble. I think they all do pop eventually, unless kept on life support by a party with an infinite money supply, timing the pop sure is hard though.

Baker speaks relatively plainly for an economist, and I think he has many good points; his review of Piketty on YouTube is the good one, I think, definitely in a different league from the politically close Varoufakis'. The downsides for me are that he believes deeply in two things I'm skeptical about – a political ideology (doesn't even matter which, just not my kind of weed to smoke), and quantitative macro models (which would be fine if he cared to discuss them, what he often does though is quote their predictions as gospel. Maybe for a more well-read person than me this part is easier to deal with because they'd know the models and their limitations just by the context where he quotes them.)

BTW as of now my animation looks like a failed experiment, in that most people didn't even bother to watch it, few viewers liked it, judging by the various like counts, and I suspect many didn't even get it, because of the MBS references and the like. Next time, I'll probably try another kind of subject.

#12 free gg hack on 05.15.19 at 4:43 pm

Cheers, here from google, i enjoyng this, I come back again.

#13 krunker hacks on 05.16.19 at 12:46 pm

Yeah bookmaking this wasn’t a risky decision outstanding post! .

#14 Johnson Estela on 05.16.19 at 3:40 pm

I enjoy your opinion on this topic and look forward to additional posts and comments here at yosefk.com. Thanks!

#15 fortnite aimbot download on 05.16.19 at 4:41 pm

This is good. Cheers!

#16 nonsensediamond on 05.17.19 at 6:54 am

I consider something really special in this site.

#17 fallout 76 hacks on 05.17.19 at 10:21 am

Some truly fine stuff on this web site , appreciate it for contribution.

#18 red dead redemption 2 digital key resale on 05.17.19 at 3:31 pm

I truly enjoy looking through on this web site , it holds superb content .

#19 redline v3.0 on 05.17.19 at 6:35 pm

I have interest in this, xexe.

#20 badoo superpowers free on 05.18.19 at 8:01 am

I’m impressed, I have to admit. Genuinely rarely should i encounter a weblog that’s both educative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you may have hit the nail about the head. Your idea is outstanding; the problem is an element that insufficient persons are speaking intelligently about. I am delighted we came across this during my look for something with this.

#21 sniper fury cheats windows 10 on 05.18.19 at 2:52 pm

I’m impressed, I have to admit. Genuinely rarely should i encounter a weblog that’s both educative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you may have hit the nail about the head. Your idea is outstanding; the problem is an element that insufficient persons are speaking intelligently about. I am delighted we came across this during my look for something with this.

#22 mining simulator 2019 on 05.19.19 at 6:53 am

Some truly interesting article on this web site , appreciate it for contribution.

#23 smutstone on 05.20.19 at 11:32 am

Great, bing took me stright here. thanks btw for post. Cheers!

#24 redline v3.0 on 05.21.19 at 7:01 am

I must say, as a lot as I enjoyed reading what you had to say, I couldnt help but lose interest after a while.

#25 free fire hack version unlimited diamond on 05.21.19 at 4:17 pm

Enjoyed examining this, very good stuff, thanks .

#26 nonsense diamond on 05.22.19 at 6:07 pm

Ni hao, i really think i will be back to your website

#27 krunker aimbot on 05.23.19 at 6:25 am

I consider something really special in this site.

#28 bitcoin adder v.1.3.00 free download on 05.23.19 at 10:04 am

I love reading through and I believe this website got some genuinely utilitarian stuff on it! .

#29 vn hax on 05.23.19 at 6:48 pm

I like this page, some useful stuff on here : D.

#30 eternity.cc v9 on 05.24.19 at 7:36 am

Enjoyed examining this, very good stuff, thanks .

#31 ispoofer pogo activate seriale on 05.24.19 at 6:02 pm

I consider something really special in this site.

#32 cheats for hempire game on 05.26.19 at 6:25 am

Great read to see, glad that google brought me here, Keep Up good Work

#33 iobit uninstaller 7.5 key on 05.26.19 at 9:11 am

Deference to op , some superb selective information .

#34 smart defrag 6.2 serial key on 05.26.19 at 3:30 pm

Great stuff to check out, glad that Yahoo brought me here, Keep Up nice Work

#35 resetter epson l1110 on 05.26.19 at 6:10 pm

I simply must tell you that you have an excellent and unique web that I must say enjoyed reading.

#36 sims 4 seasons code free on 05.27.19 at 7:27 am

I’m impressed, I have to admit. Genuinely rarely should i encounter a weblog that’s both educative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you may have hit the nail about the head. Your idea is outstanding; the problem is an element that insufficient persons are speaking intelligently about. I am delighted we came across this during my look for something with this.

#37 rust hacks on 05.27.19 at 7:59 pm

I have interest in this, xexe.

#38 strucid hacks on 05.28.19 at 10:18 am

I consider something really special in this site.

#39 expressvpn key on 05.28.19 at 7:21 pm

Enjoyed reading through this, very good stuff, thankyou .

#40 how to get help in windows 10 on 05.29.19 at 3:05 am

You really make it appear really easy along with your presentation however I to
find this matter to be really one thing which I believe I might by
no means understand. It sort of feels too complex
and extremely broad for me. I am having a
look ahead to your subsequent post, I'll attempt to get the hold of it!

#41 ispoofer license key on 05.29.19 at 8:34 am

I simply must tell you that you have an excellent and unique article that I kinda enjoyed reading.

#42 gamefly free trial on 05.29.19 at 12:12 pm

Hi would you mind stating which blog platform you're using?
I'm looking to start my own blog soon but I'm having a tough time
making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I'm looking for something completely unique.
P.S Sorry for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

#43 aimbot free download fortnite on 05.29.19 at 12:33 pm

I consider something really special in this site.

#44 website on 05.29.19 at 2:00 pm

Wow, fantastic blog layout! How long have you been blogging for?
you made blogging look easy. The overall look of your website is wonderful,
let alone the content!

#45 redline v3.0 on 05.29.19 at 5:00 pm

I’m impressed, I have to admit. Genuinely rarely should i encounter a weblog that’s both educative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you may have hit the nail about the head. Your idea is outstanding; the problem is an element that insufficient persons are speaking intelligently about. I am delighted we came across this during my look for something with this.

#46 gamefly free trial on 05.30.19 at 3:29 am

Howdy! This post could not be written any better!

Looking through this article reminds me of my previous roommate!
He continually kept preaching about this. I will send this article to him.
Pretty sure he'll have a good read. Thank you for
sharing!

#47 vn hax on 05.30.19 at 6:13 am

This is awesome!

#48 xbox one mods free download on 05.31.19 at 12:46 pm

Yeah bookmaking this wasn’t a risky decision outstanding post! .

#49 fortnite aimbot download on 05.31.19 at 3:31 pm

Awesome, this is what I was looking for in bing

#50 gamefly free trial on 05.31.19 at 5:56 pm

Just want to say your article is as surprising. The clarity in your post is just
great and i could assume you are an expert on this subject.
Well with your permission let me to grab your feed
to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please carry on the enjoyable work.

#51 mpl pro on 06.01.19 at 6:26 pm

This is cool!

#52 hacks counter blox script on 06.02.19 at 6:33 am

Some truly great posts on this web site , appreciate it for contribution.

#53 gamefly free trial on 06.02.19 at 7:46 pm

Hello mates, its great piece of writing on the topic of educationand completely explained,
keep it up all the time.

#54 how to crack fortnite accounts on 06.03.19 at 10:22 am

You got yourself a new rader.

#55 gamefly free trial on 06.04.19 at 5:20 am

Wow that was odd. I just wrote an extremely long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn't
show up. Grrrr… well I'm not writing all that over
again. Regardless, just wanted to say fantastic blog!

#56 Joan Utterback on 06.04.19 at 7:57 pm

I'm pleased by the manner in which yosefk.com deals with this type of topic! Generally to the point, often polemic, consistently well-written and more often than not quite challenging.

#57 gamefly free trial on 06.05.19 at 2:58 am

Genuinely when someone doesn't be aware of afterward its up to other visitors that they will help, so here it happens.

#58 gamefly free trial on 06.06.19 at 3:43 am

It's truly very difficult in this active life to listen news on Television, therefore I
just use the web for that purpose, and take the most up-to-date information.

#59 Enda Cantrall on 06.08.19 at 1:13 am

6/7/2019 @ 6:13:59 PM In my view, yosefk.com does a good job of handling issues of this sort! While sometimes intentionally controversial, the posts are more often than not well-written and stimulating.

#60 gamefly free trial 2019 coupon on 06.10.19 at 6:00 pm

Way cool! Some very valid points! I appreciate you writing this article and the
rest of the site is also very good.

#61 Danny Lapointe on 06.11.19 at 1:36 am

I'm pleased with the way that yosefk.com covers this kind of subject matter. Usually on point, often polemic, always thoughtful as well as challenging.

#62 Hae Ferri on 06.13.19 at 8:59 pm

Like the website– extremely easy to navigate and lots to think about!

#63 quest bars cheap on 06.14.19 at 4:47 pm

This post is genuinely a fastidious one it assists new internet
users, who are wishing in favor of blogging.

#64 quest bars cheap on 06.15.19 at 8:39 am

If you would like to grow your know-how simply keep
visiting this website and be updated with the most recent information posted
here.

#65 fortnite aimbot free on 06.17.19 at 2:44 am

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#66 Stepweero on 06.17.19 at 4:15 am

Viagra Generikum Viagra Achat En Suisse En Asnieres [url=http://cialcost.com]online cialis[/url] Ordonnance Viagra Cialis Per Le Donne

#67 quest bars cheap on 06.17.19 at 11:36 am

I was pretty pleased to uncover this page. I need to to
thank you for your time just for this wonderful read!!
I definitely enjoyed every little bit of it and I have you book-marked to check out new things on your web site.

#68 tinyurl.com on 06.18.19 at 2:12 am

Hi everyone, it's my first pay a quick visit at this web page, and post
is genuinely fruitful in favor of me, keep up posting these posts.

#69 proxo key generator on 06.19.19 at 10:32 am

I was looking at some of your articles on this site and I believe this internet site is really instructive! Keep on posting .

#70 vn hax pubg mobile on 06.20.19 at 7:17 pm

I am glad to be one of the visitors on this great website (:, appreciate it for posting .

#71 nonsense diamond key on 06.21.19 at 8:30 am

Hey, yahoo lead me here, keep up nice work.

#72 game of dice cheats on 06.23.19 at 5:55 pm

This i like. Cheers!

#73 gmod hacks on 06.24.19 at 3:57 pm

Cheers, great stuff, Me like.

#74 Explain Like I’m Five on 06.25.19 at 5:52 am

I dugg some of you post as I thought they were very beneficial invaluable

#75 Stepweero on 06.25.19 at 7:35 pm

Cialis En Turquie Levitra Suisse Non Prescription Dog Amoxicillin [url=http://sildenaf50.com]viagra[/url] Cialis 10mg Pellic Strep And Amoxicillin

#76 geometry dash 2.11 download pc on 06.25.19 at 8:39 pm

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#77 skisploit on 06.26.19 at 7:18 am

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#78 eebest8 michael on 06.26.19 at 6:54 pm

"Hello there! I could have sworn I've been to this site before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it's new to me. Nonetheless, I'm definitely glad I found it and I'll be book-marking and checking back often!"

#79 ispoofer on 06.27.19 at 6:41 am

I really enjoy examining on this blog , it has got cool article .

#80 synapse x cracked on 06.27.19 at 9:31 pm

very interesting post, i actually enjoyed this web site, carry on it

#81 strucid aimbot script on 06.28.19 at 8:07 am

I like this site because so much useful stuff on here : D.

#82 advanced systemcare 11.5 pro key on 06.28.19 at 1:59 pm

Morning, i really think i will be back to your site

#83 zee 5 hack on 06.29.19 at 8:52 am

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#84 cryptotab script hack free download on 06.29.19 at 3:12 pm

Respect to website author , some wonderful entropy.

#85 choices hack ios on 07.01.19 at 9:36 am

Yeah bookmaking this wasn’t a risky decision outstanding post! .

#86 codes for mining simulator 2019 on 07.01.19 at 8:20 pm

Great, google took me stright here. thanks btw for this. Cheers!

#87 free cheats for rust on 07.02.19 at 8:19 am

Yeah bookmaking this wasn’t a risky decision outstanding post! .

#88 nonsense diamond on 07.02.19 at 1:45 pm

I love reading through and I believe this website got some genuinely utilitarian stuff on it! .

#89 download vnhax on 07.03.19 at 7:55 am

I like this page, some useful stuff on here : D.

#90 cyberhackid on 07.03.19 at 7:50 pm

I like this site, because so much useful stuff on here : D.

#91 prison life hacks on 07.04.19 at 7:52 am

I really enjoy examining on this page , it has got good content .

#92 what is seo simple on 07.04.19 at 3:20 pm

Parasite backlink SEO works well :)

#93 subbot on 07.04.19 at 7:39 pm

Some truly wonderful stuff on this web site , appreciate it for contribution.

#94 dego pubg hack on 07.05.19 at 7:53 am

Cheers, here from google, me enjoyng this, I come back again.

#95 erdas foundation 2015 on 07.05.19 at 8:11 pm

This is interesting!

#96 synapse x roblox on 07.06.19 at 7:13 am

very cool post, i actually enjoyed this web site, carry on it

#97 gx tool apk pubg uc download on 07.06.19 at 11:28 am

Morning, i really think i will be back to your website

#98 rekordbox torrent on 07.06.19 at 11:31 pm

I like, will read more. Cheers!

#99 call of duty black ops 4 keygen serial licence on 07.07.19 at 9:22 am

This is great!

#100 spyhunter 5.4.2.101 crack on 07.08.19 at 9:27 am

Appreciate it for this howling post, I am glad I observed this internet site on yahoo.

#101 quest bars cheap 2019 coupon on 07.09.19 at 6:34 am

Hi there colleagues, fastidious piece of writing and fastidious
arguments commented at this place, I am genuinely enjoying by these.

#102 fps unlocker download on 07.09.19 at 11:12 am

I kinda got into this article. I found it to be interesting and loaded with unique points of interest.

#103 plenty of fish dating site on 07.15.19 at 10:43 am

It's really a great and helpful piece of info.
I am happy that you just shared this helpful info with us.
Please keep us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

#104 how to get help in windows 10 on 07.16.19 at 4:44 pm

Quality posts is the important to be a focus for the viewers to go to see the web site,
that's what this website is providing.

#105 plenty of fish dating site on 07.18.19 at 3:22 pm

I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting my own weblog and was wondering what all is needed to get set up?
I'm assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
I'm not very web smart so I'm not 100% sure.
Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated.
Cheers

#106 Miguel Kaufmann on 07.19.19 at 12:28 pm

Skyking, this note is your next piece of info. Do contact the agency at your earliest convenience. No further information until next transmission. This is broadcast #5525. Do not delete.

#107 plenty of fish dating site on 07.19.19 at 3:41 pm

I always emailed this web site post page to all my associates, as if like to read it next my friends
will too.

#108 how to get help in windows 10 on 07.20.19 at 8:22 am

Fantastic goods from you, man. I have be aware your stuff prior to
and you're just extremely great. I actually like what you've obtained right here, really like what
you're stating and the best way through which you assert it.

You're making it entertaining and you still take care of
to keep it sensible. I cant wait to read much more from you.
That is really a great site.

#109 how to get help in windows 10 on 07.21.19 at 10:34 am

Exceptional post however , I was wanting to know if you could write a litte
more on this subject? I'd be very thankful if you could
elaborate a little bit more. Many thanks!

#110 prodigy game files on 07.21.19 at 3:35 pm

This i like. Thanks!

#111 natalielise on 07.22.19 at 8:23 pm

Thank you a lot for sharing this with all of us you really recognize what
you are talking about! Bookmarked. Kindly also discuss with my web site
=). We will have a hyperlink exchange contract among us plenty of fish
natalielise

#112 plenty of fish dating site on 07.23.19 at 10:12 am

I'm impressed, I have to admit. Rarely do I come across a blog that's both educative and amusing, and let me tell you, you have
hit the nail on the head. The problem is something not enough folks are speaking
intelligently about. I'm very happy that I found this in my search for something
relating to this.

#113 evogame. net/wifi on 07.23.19 at 1:57 pm

Me like, will read more. Cheers!

#114 plenty of fish dating site on 07.24.19 at 12:40 pm

Usually I don't read article on blogs, however I would like to say that this write-up
very compelled me to check out and do it! Your
writing taste has been surprised me. Thanks, quite nice article.

#115 fortnite skin changer by darkshoz on 07.24.19 at 2:14 pm

I truly enjoy looking through on this web site , it holds superb content .

#116 plenty of fish dating site on 07.25.19 at 1:35 pm

This is really interesting, You're a very skilled blogger.
I have joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your wonderful post.

Also, I have shared your web site in my social networks!

#117 ezfrags on 07.25.19 at 4:19 pm

I have interest in this, xexe.

#118 smore.com on 07.26.19 at 2:14 am

Whats up very cool site!! Guy .. Beautiful ..
Superb .. I'll bookmark your site and take the feeds also?

I am happy to seek out so many helpful information right here in the publish, we want develop extra techniques in this regard, thanks for sharing.

. . . . . natalielise plenty of fish

#119 skisploit on 07.26.19 at 5:25 pm

Enjoyed reading through this, very good stuff, thankyou .

#120 nbc sports activate on 01.02.20 at 11:40 am

Hi there, this weekend is nice in support of me, for the reason that
this point in time i am reading this enormous educational
article here at my house.